Neon Esports vs MANTA Esports — prediction PW2S1ЗК · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Neon Esportswin 2:0

series probability

77%23%

probability at match start · final 2:0

MANTA Esportsloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Marsoften banned

JG · 15 games

40%

Hoodwink

Bombi · 10 games

30%

Keeper of the Lightsignature

Bombi · 8 games

63%

Pangolieroften banned

Ken · 8 games

38%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Ken · 7 games

43%

Techiessignature

Bombi · 7 games

86%

Magnusoften banned

JG · 6 games

50%

Puckoften banned

Ken · 6 games

50%

MANTA Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Centaur Warrunner

422 picks · 689 bans

56%

Mars

401 picks · 648 bans

54%

Techies

396 picks · 323 bans

50%

Lion

395 picks · 362 bans

53%

Tiny

384 picks · 467 bans

54%

Batrider

382 picks · 840 bans

56%

Vengeful Spirit

361 picks · 359 bans

51%

Pangolier

352 picks · 601 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% MANTA Esports

Head-to-head2 – 0

Model total77% Neon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct32:8

Neon Esports 65%MANTA Esports 35%

The model gave 65% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 27:45.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo