BIX Invitationals Summer · BO5
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 3:2series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 3:2
MCMoon Chasersloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 22 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 22 games
Sand King
Yopaj · 19 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 18 games
Tusk
PlayHard · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
Moon Chasers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
435 picks · 173 bans
Mars
327 picks · 532 bans
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 476 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 177 bans
Puck
311 picks · 773 bans
Nyx Assassin
302 picks · 630 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 226 bans
Enchantress
280 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:15
Neon Esports 83%Moon Chasers 17%
The model gave 83% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 22:26.
Game 2prediction correct30:24
Neon Esports 83%Moon Chasers 17%
The model gave 83% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 25:53.
Game 3prediction missed15:29
Neon Esports 83%Moon Chasers 17%
The model gave 83% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Moon Chasers in 34:55.
Game 4prediction missed21:35
Neon Esports 83%Moon Chasers 17%
The model gave 83% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Moon Chasers in 30:05.
Game 5prediction correct50:8
Neon Esports 83%Moon Chasers 17%
The model gave 83% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 24:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 83%
Series resultNeon Esports 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5