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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 29 games
62%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 28 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 20 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Deth · 17 games
59%
Lion
Lion
Jaunuel · 17 games
53%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lion
cml · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
cml · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mac · 3 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Boomy · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cml · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 179 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
334 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
270 picks · 496 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
253 picks · 426 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 345 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
248 picks · 521 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
248 picks · 328 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
235 picks · 486 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:31
Neon Esports 54%Polaris Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUnknown-
44% · 96 games52% · 65 games
LifestealerNatsumi
Lifestealer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
50% · 49 games54% · 91 game
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Slardar
Slardarxiaoyu154
55% · 53 games48% · 157 games
PangolierBoomy
Pangolier
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageNARMAN
47% · 33 games53% · 85 games
Sand KingForce
Sand King
Mars
MarsJaunuel
46% · 298 games54% · 131 game
Phoenixcml
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct31:12
Neon Esports 56%Polaris Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
51% · 130 games50% · 119 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Juggernaut
JuggernautUnknown-
50% · 128 games56% · 105 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Mars
Marsxiaoyu154
47% · 282 games43% · 146 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaNARMAN
46% · 168 games56% · 248 games
Nyx AssassinBoomy
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJaunuel
55% · 123 games48% · 213 games
Abaddoncml
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 59%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2