BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 23 games
Lion
Jaunuel · 22 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 22 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Unknown- · 16 games
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 16 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 15 games
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
Polaris Esports
Lion
cml · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Boomy · 8 games
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 8 games
Silenceroften banned
Boomy · 7 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 5 games
Mirana
Boomy · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
257 picks · 316 bans
Tidehunter
257 picks · 378 bans
Monkey King
242 picks · 531 bans
Lion
227 picks · 116 bans
Void Spirit
223 picks · 245 bans
Lina
222 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
220 picks · 287 bans
Tiny
209 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:34
Neon Esports 56%Polaris Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomPalos
LeshracMac
Templar AssassinMamangDaya
RazorNatsumi
Nature's ProphetEnryu
Centaur WarrunnerForce
LionNARMAN
SnapfireBoomy
47% · 141 game
Abaddoncml
Game 2prediction missed18:39
Neon Esports 51%Polaris Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkPalos
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
KunkkaMamangDaya
LeshracMac
Legion CommanderEnryu
EarthshakerForce
SnapfireNARMAN
LionBoomy
54% · 128 games
Tidehuntercml
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 55%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2