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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sabong esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
JG · 11 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 10 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 10 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 9 games
44%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
38%

Sabong esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 608 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 383 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 140 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 470 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 576 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 151 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
314 picks · 656 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 339 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:34
Neon Esports 66%Sabong esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 35:07.
Game 2prediction correct39:13
Neon Esports 66%Sabong esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 29:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 66%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2