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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Summit Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 8 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
ChuaN · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Enryu · 7 games
29%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 7 games
43%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Jing · 7 games
57%

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
TrazaM · 9 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nj · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nj · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nj · 3 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Unknown- · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
542 picks · 455 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
442 picks · 683 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 544 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
395 picks · 280 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 582 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 810 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 539 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 628 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Summit Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:20
Neon Esports 50%Summit Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightFortuneSoul
49% · 138 games41% · 43 games
SvenUnknown-
Sven
Enigma
EnigmaEnryu
55% · 58 games49% · 153 games
Death ProphetNj
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyChuaN
51% · 243 games44% · 190 games
Dragon KnightMercury
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
56% · 125 games53% · 101 game
Rubickczy
Rubick
47% · 77 games
LionTrazaM
Lion
Game 2prediction missed34:18
Neon Esports 48%Summit Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFortuneSoul
52% · 100 games55% · 167 games
Chaos KnightUnknown-
Chaos Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetEnryu
49% · 198 games49% · 212 games
Dragon KnightNj
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyChuaN
49% · 234 games45% · 127 games
LeshracMercury
Leshrac
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSe
47% · 195 games54% · 191 game
Shadow Demonczy
Shadow Demon
51% · 30 games
WarlockTrazaM
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed
Neon Esports 51%Summit Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Summit Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 51%
Series resultSummit Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3