Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
T1win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Skem · 7 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Natsumi · 7 games
Miranasignature
Skem · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 6 games
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
PlayHard · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 4 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
308 picks · 630 bans
Void Spirit
288 picks · 360 bans
Mars
250 picks · 430 bans
Earth Spirit
235 picks · 188 bans
Rubick
205 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
200 picks · 608 bans
Keeper of the Light
196 picks · 391 bans
Phoenix
195 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 60%
Hero pool strength63% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:41
Neon Esports 70%T1 30%
The model gave 70% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 51:43.
Game 2prediction correct28:12
Neon Esports 70%T1 30%
The model gave 70% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:17.
Game 3prediction missed20:33
Neon Esports 70%T1 30%
The model gave 70% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 35:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 70%
Series resultT1 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3