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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 22 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 21 game
62%
Sand King
Sand King
Yopaj · 19 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 13 games
77%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
AhFu · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 7 games
86%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 7 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
Ohaiyo · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
443 picks · 174 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 535 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 186 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
315 picks · 478 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 785 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
306 picks · 620 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
286 picks · 233 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
283 picks · 359 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:9
Neon Esports 58%Team SMG 42%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 23:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherEnryu
49% · 49 games52% · 32 games
SvenMidOne
Sven
Bristleback
BristlebackSkem
52% · 43 games51% · 71 game
Winter WyvernMoon
Winter Wyvern
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
51% · 92 games55% · 175 games
Marskpii
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
55% · 88 games46% · 64 games
GyrocopterAhFu
Gyrocopter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJaunuel
43% · 166 games47% · 96 games
AbaddonRoddgeee
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed0:0
Neon Esports 57%Team SMG 43%
The model gave 57% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 52:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYopaj
61% · 60 games49% · 186 games
MarsMoon
Mars
Broodmother
BroodmotherTims
56% · 41 game52% · 69 games
Winter WyvernAhFu
Winter Wyvern
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSkem
49% · 105 games47% · 22 games
BrewmasterRoddgeee
Brewmaster
Puck
PuckJaunuel
47% · 246 games49% · 90 games
Tinykpii
Tiny
Zeus
ZeusEnryu
44% · 13 games47% · 98 games
TerrorbladeMidOne
Terrorblade
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 67%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2