Neon Esports vs Teletubbies — prediction EOKL2ОК · Dota 2

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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Neon Esportswin 2:0

series probability

77%23%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Teletubbiesloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Storm Spiritoften banned

Ken · 14 games

43%

Rubicksignature

Hishge · 13 games

62%

Morphlingsignature

FortuneSoul · 8 games

75%

Void Spiritsignature

Ken · 8 games

63%

Alchemistsignature

FortuneSoul · 6 games

67%

Ember Spiritsignature

Ken · 6 games

67%

Dark Willow

Hishge · 5 games

20%

Enchantressoften banned

Hishge · 5 games

80%

Teletubbies

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Vengeful Spirit

216 picks · 271 bans

52%

Grimstroke

184 picks · 179 bans

54%

Pangolier

183 picks · 387 bans

53%

Dark Willow

175 picks · 71 bans

51%

Sven

169 picks · 248 bans

57%

Earthshaker

168 picks · 166 bans

59%

Earth Spirit

150 picks · 244 bans

47%

Phoenix

150 picks · 203 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%

Hero pool strength51% Neon Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total77% Neon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct6:32

Neon Esports 77%Teletubbies 23%

The model gave 77% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 26:34.

Game 2prediction correct29:24

Neon Esports 66%Teletubbies 34%

The model gave 66% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 45:48.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo