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Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
83%
Slark
Slarksignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
67%

Thunder Awaken

Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
ILICH- · 10 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 9 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Michael · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 688 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
517 picks · 333 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
435 picks · 919 bans
52%
Doom
Doom
431 picks · 925 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 847 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
383 picks · 390 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 872 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
378 picks · 983 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:34
Neon Esports 39%Thunder Awaken 61%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautFortuneSoul
49% · 71 game60% · 122 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
49% · 111 games49% · 156 games
TimbersawILICH-
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderHishge
45% · 178 games47% · 82 games
OracleMjz
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed39:14
Neon Esports 44%Thunder Awaken 56%
The model gave 56% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFortuneSoul
45% · 75 games51% · 52 games
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
Troll Warlord
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainKen
48% · 69 games54% · 154 games
BroodmotherILICH-
Broodmother
Rubick
RubickHishge
45% · 328 games57% · 266 games
UndyingMjz
Undying
Game 3prediction missed31:7
Neon Esports 41%Thunder Awaken 59%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 21:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonFortuneSoul
36% · 36 games55% · 116 games
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
Faceless Void
Primal Beast
Primal BeastKen
50% · 204 games47% · 224 games
DoomILICH-
Doom
Rubick
RubickHishge
49% · 435 games59% · 335 games
DisruptorMjz
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 64%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3