Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Lion
NARMAN · 21 game
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 16 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 15 games
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 14 games
Leshracsignature
Enryu · 13 games
TNC Predator
Phoenix
Boomy · 7 games
Dragon Knight
Bok · 6 games
Lionsignature
Tims · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 4 games
Razoroften banned
YoungGodLevi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
366 picks · 546 bans
Bane
343 picks · 257 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 203 bans
Weaver
322 picks · 718 bans
Monkey King
245 picks · 740 bans
Disruptor
241 picks · 157 bans
Io
239 picks · 568 bans
Tidehunter
236 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 20%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:20
Neon Esports 56%TNC Predator 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 25:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingPalos
LunaYoungGodLevi
Void SpiritMamangDaya
Marsxiaoyu154
Spirit BreakerEnryu
Ember SpiritYowe
WeaverNARMAN
IoFebby
50% · 124 games
Dark WillowPlayHard
Game 2prediction correct28:26
Neon Esports 55%TNC Predator 45%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MagePalos
Queen of PainYoungGodLevi
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
Spirit Breakerxiaoyu154
MarsEnryu
Storm SpiritYowe
MiranaNARMAN
SnapfirePlayHard
55% · 126 games
Elder TitanFebby
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2