Neon Esports vs WOLF — prediction EOB2ОК · Dota 2

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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Neon Esportswin 2:0

series probability

72%28%

probability at match start · final 2:0

WOLFloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Storm Spiritoften banned

Ken · 8 games

25%

Marsoften banned

JG · 7 games

43%

Dark Willow

PlayHard · 6 games

Puckoften banned

Ken · 6 games

50%

Rubick

Hishge · 6 games

50%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Ken · 5 games

60%

Techies

Bombi · 5 games

80%

Pangolieroften banned

Ken · 4 games

25%

WOLF

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Centaur Warrunner

297 picks · 433 bans

54%

Phoenix

272 picks · 409 bans

49%

Grimstroke

260 picks · 441 bans

51%

Tusk

227 picks · 206 bans

46%

Lion

225 picks · 204 bans

51%

Nature's Prophet

225 picks · 633 bans

53%

Vengeful Spirit

221 picks · 114 bans

53%

Pangolier

214 picks · 308 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%

Hero pool strength52% WOLF

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total72% Neon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct21:4

Neon Esports 60%WOLF 40%

The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 25:26.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

PangolierKen

53% · 194 games47% · 121 game

Templar AssassinJikroy