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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Neptune Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neptune Gaming

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Yang · 16 games
50%
Lion
Lion
fy · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
fy · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Yang · 12 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 9 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
Somnus · 9 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 9 games
56%

Aster.Aries

Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
TK · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
生死 · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 6 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Fantasy · 6 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
317 picks · 442 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
277 picks · 207 bans
59%
Monkey King
Monkey King
274 picks · 687 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
266 picks · 410 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
248 picks · 135 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
247 picks · 520 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
216 picks · 248 bans
45%
Lina
Lina
212 picks · 475 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Neptune Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:21
Neptune Gaming 30%Aster.Aries 70%
The model gave 70% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNight
52% · 58 games52% · 166 games
JuggernautUlu
Juggernaut
Ursa
UrsaFonte
50% · 62 games54% · 47 games
Outworld Destroyerphoenix
Outworld Destroyer
Mars
Marsdolem
45% · 223 games46% · 81 game
Night Stalker生死
Night Stalker
Lion
LionHuiHui
46% · 144 games56% · 74 games
Ogre MagiRedPanda
Ogre Magi
Undying
Undying小郭嘉
42% · 26 games55% · 145 games
IoTK
Io
Game 2prediction correct9:30
Neptune Gaming 31%Aster.Aries 69%
The model gave 69% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaFonte
45% · 91 game50% · 147 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNight
41% · 59 games57% · 101 game
Windrangerphoenix
Windranger
Mars
Marsdolem
51% · 214 games53% · 96 games
Night Stalker生死
Night Stalker
Lion
LionHuiHui
46% · 174 games50% · 96 games
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
Treant Protector
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi小郭嘉
55% · 55 games51% · 153 games
IoTK
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 80%
Series resultAster.Aries 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2