DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nerdy Ninjasloss 0:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:1
747win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nerdy Ninjas
No games played over 6 months.
747
Pangolieroften banned
Karl · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
Boomy · 2 games
Clockwerk
Jaunuel · 1 game
Dark Willow
Boomy · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
Karl · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Karl · 1 game
Doomoften banned
db- · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
257 picks · 436 bans
Phoenix
233 picks · 363 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
218 picks · 286 bans
Tusk
210 picks · 196 bans
Dark Willow
209 picks · 99 bans
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Nerdy Ninjas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% 747
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:37
Nerdy Ninjas 30%747 70%
The model gave 70% on 747 — the game was taken by 747 in 39:43.
Model check result
Model favorite747 · 70%
Series result747 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1