ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neutralcampwin 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
QTQuadrober Troyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neutralcamp
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
krol9ash · 1 game
Hoodwink
Delight · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 1 game
Visageoften banned
krol9ash · 1 game
Quadrober Troy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 525 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 362 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 447 bans
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 568 bans
Dark Willow
272 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 945 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Neutralcamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Neutralcamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:6
Neutralcamp 54%Quadrober Troy 46%
The model gave 54% on Neutralcamp — the game was taken by Neutralcamp in 20:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistchempik
VisageGhostik
Storm SpiritPanda
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
PhoenixDelight
Model check result
Model favoriteNeutralcamp · 59%
Series resultNeutralcamp 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1