ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionNGNew Growthwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PEPuraka Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
New Growth
No games played over 6 months.
Puraka Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
537 picks · 746 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 341 bans
Dragon Knight
460 picks · 634 bans
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 543 bans
Shadow Demon
370 picks · 645 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 549 bans
Mars
337 picks · 461 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 148 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% New Growth
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% New Growth
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:6
New Growth 67%Puraka Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on New Growth — the game was taken by New Growth in 31:57.
Game 2prediction correct40:26
New Growth 67%Puraka Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on New Growth — the game was taken by New Growth in 36:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteNew Growth · 67%
Series resultNew Growth 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2