Night Pulse vs DMS — prediction I2ЗК · Dota 2

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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Night Pulsewin 2:0

series probability

39%61%

probability at match start · final 2:0

DMSloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maidensignature

JANTER · 15 games

67%

Pangolieroften banned

Worick · 14 games

50%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

Corrupted · 7 games

29%

Doomoften banned

Corrupted · 7 games

57%

Techies

JANTER · 7 games

29%

Disruptorsignature

JANTER · 6 games

83%

Lifestealeroften banned

Kami · 6 games

50%

Puckoften banned

Worick · 6 games

50%

DMS

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

444 picks · 704 bans

52%

Crystal Maiden

440 picks · 210 bans

54%

Centaur Warrunner

409 picks · 568 bans

53%

Gyrocopter

405 picks · 422 bans

50%

Batrider

366 picks · 640 bans

48%

Rubick

358 picks · 167 bans

51%

Dragon Knight

345 picks · 906 bans

53%

Pangolier

337 picks · 664 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%

Hero pool strength52% Night Pulse

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total61% DMS

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed22:14

Night Pulse 45%DMS 55%

The model gave 55% on DMS — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 34:14.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo