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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 11 games
73%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 10 games
70%

Dragon Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
29%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 6 games
50%
Sven
Sven
paw · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 5 games
20%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 701 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 375 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
321 picks · 467 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
321 picks · 620 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
320 picks · 253 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 211 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 350 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
294 picks · 538 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total89% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:7
Night Pulse 76%Dragon Esports 24%
The model gave 76% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 23:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenV-Tune
44% · 112 games54% · 20 games
Sand Kingdualrazee
Sand King
Lycan
LycanKami
50% · 30 games52% · 212 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Weaver
WeaverJANTER
53% · 105 games50% · 126 games
Faceless Voidpaw
Faceless Void
Invoker
InvokerWorick
44% · 85 games
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
51% · 26 games
Game 2prediction correct29:20
Night Pulse 75%Dragon Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenV-Tune
53% · 61 game53% · 68 games
Broodmotherdualrazee
Broodmother
Magnus
MagnusKami
58% · 27 games43% · 210 games
Windrangerpaw
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
63% · 55 games47% · 30 games
Sand KingNorma
Sand King
Rubick
RubickJANTER
46% · 92 games
Phoenix
PhoenixHduo
47% · 73 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 89%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2