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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 5 games
20%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
67%

HULIGANI

Techies
Techies
OneJey · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 11 games
45%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 9 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 9 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
43%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 708 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
413 picks · 665 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
410 picks · 326 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 503 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 865 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
369 picks · 163 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
365 picks · 361 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:27
Night Pulse 59%HULIGANI 41%
The model gave 59% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 58:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKami
51% · 124 games47% · 186 games
MorphlingRAMZES666
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
46% · 294 games46% · 87 games
Leshracre1bl
Leshrac
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCorrupted
57% · 98 games44% · 171 game
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
53% · 119 games60% · 70 games
ChenPanto
Chen
46% · 121 game
GrimstrokeOneJey
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed7:40
Night Pulse 59%HULIGANI 41%
The model gave 59% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKami
60% · 37 games44% · 75 games
LunaRAMZES666
Luna
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritWorick
51% · 69 games54% · 104 games
Kunkkare1bl
Kunkka
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
45% · 123 games52% · 110 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJANTER
57% · 228 games43% · 61 game
HoodwinkOneJey
Hoodwink
46% · 107 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 62%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2