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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 14 games
43%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 13 games
62%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 11 games
64%

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
45%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 9 games
22%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 7 games
29%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Focus · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 686 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
496 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
479 picks · 479 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 546 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 369 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
422 picks · 1004 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
395 picks · 914 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 762 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 29%
Hero pool strength61% Night Pulse
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total94% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:66
Night Pulse 80%Level UP 20%
The model gave 80% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Level UP in 51:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
46% · 311 games47% · 186 games
InvokerMaTson
Invoker
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKami
53% · 82 games57% · 159 games
Dark SeerAnkou
Dark Seer
Muerta
MuertadEsire
48% · 166 games53% · 175 games
Magnus4IVAN
Magnus
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
50% · 66 games46% · 114 games
LeshracAtoufix
Leshrac
Silencer
SilencerKidaro
53% · 9 games
Game 2prediction correct46:16
Night Pulse 80%Level UP 20%
The model gave 80% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKami
50% · 71 game44% · 98 games
InvokerMaTson
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
48% · 124 games47% · 127 games
Ursa4IVAN
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
55% · 91 game54% · 42 games
TidehunterAnkou
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranadEsire
59% · 76 games47% · 102 games
LeshracAtoufix
Leshrac
Silencer
SilencerKidaro
47% · 7 games
Game 3prediction correct53:25
Night Pulse 79%Level UP 21%
The model gave 79% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
54% · 109 games45% · 59 games
Nature's Prophet4IVAN
Nature's Prophet
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
44% · 46 games56% · 115 games
EarthshakerMaTson
Earthshaker
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
49% · 263 games53% · 349 games
PhoenixAnkou
Phoenix
Muerta
MuertadEsire
50% · 203 games45% · 104 games
MarciAtoufix
Marci
Silencer
SilencerKidaro
50% · 6 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 94%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3