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RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 11 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hduo · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 11 games
45%

Monte

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 14 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 11 games
27%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 10 games
30%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 712 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
327 picks · 627 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
324 picks · 265 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 372 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
322 picks · 217 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
321 picks · 469 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
301 picks · 350 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 536 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 29%
Hero pool strength61% Night Pulse
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total88% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:22
Night Pulse 74%Monte 26%
The model gave 74% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
51% · 74 games48% · 142 games
SvenCrystallize
Sven
Sand King
Sand KingKami
39% · 38 games60% · 56 games
EnigmaVladikTheHtiviy
Enigma
Invoker
InvokerWorick
55% · 72 games52% · 134 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireJANTER
48% · 103 games51% · 16 games
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Nyx Assassin
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHduo
48% · 134 games50% · 73 games
Elder TitanEcNart
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct39:19
Night Pulse 75%Monte 25%
The model gave 75% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenV-Tune
54% · 158 games48% · 46 games
BroodmotherCrystallize
Broodmother
Invoker
InvokerWorick
57% · 88 games46% · 38 games
Sand KingVladikTheHtiviy
Sand King
Dark Seer
Dark SeerKami
49% · 116 games45% · 73 games
Void SpiritMoonlight
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJANTER
56% · 133 games47% · 61 game
JakiroEcNart
Jakiro
Oracle
OracleHduo
58% · 18 games43% · 295 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 88%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2