?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
JANTER · 1 game
0%

Natus Vincere Junior

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 11 games
82%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 11 games
55%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Niku · 9 games
22%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 335 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 115 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 476 bans
60%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 219 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
212 picks · 297 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 376 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 436 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
192 picks · 285 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:31
Night Pulse 37%Natus Vincere Junior 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:35.
Game 2prediction correct18:35
Night Pulse 37%Natus Vincere Junior 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 63%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2