CCT Series 6 · BO5
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 2:3series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Jakirosignature
Hduo · 19 games
Hoodwink
JANTER · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 13 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hduo · 10 games
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 10 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 31 game
Lichsignature
Riddys · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 26 games
Tinysignature
Niku · 23 games
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
Timbersawsignature
pma · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
471 picks · 411 bans
Phoenix
454 picks · 558 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 549 bans
Clockwerk
426 picks · 537 bans
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 777 bans
Tiny
411 picks · 444 bans
Lion
410 picks · 230 bans
Magnus
395 picks · 843 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total50% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:22
Night Pulse 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerKami
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Earth SpiritWorick
TinyNiku
EnigmaDavai
Tidehunterpma
MuertadEsire
MagnusZayac
LichKidaro
PhoenixRiddys
Game 2prediction missed22:30
Night Pulse 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 46:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKami
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Ember SpiritWorick
Pangolierpma
PhoenixDavai
PuckNiku
EnigmaKidaro
ClockwerkZayac
TuskdEsire
PugnaRiddys
Game 3prediction missed7:45
Night Pulse 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKami
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Ember SpiritWorick
Beastmasterpma
TerrorbladeDavai
TimbersawNiku
JakiroKidaro
ClockwerkZayac
TuskdEsire
PugnaRiddys
Game 4prediction correct32:17
Night Pulse 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKami
Templar Assassingotthejuice
EnigmaDavai
Ember SpiritNiku
InvokerWorick
Timbersawpma
EnchantressKidaro
BatriderZayac
EarthshakerdEsire
LichRiddys
Game 5prediction correct16:29
Night Pulse 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomDavai
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
SlarkKami
Primal Beastpma
Monkey KingWorick
InvokerNiku
EnchantressKidaro
EarthshakerZayac
MuertadEsire
PugnaRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 50%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 5