The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 5 games
Techies
JANTER · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Worick · 4 games
nouns
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 17 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 17 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 15 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 13 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
464 picks · 741 bans
Mars
432 picks · 693 bans
Techies
428 picks · 344 bans
Tiny
419 picks · 547 bans
Batrider
415 picks · 895 bans
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
Crystal Maiden
394 picks · 176 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:31
Night Pulse 36%nouns 64%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKami
Faceless VoidYuma
Primal BeastCorrupted
TinyCopy
WindrangerWorick
GyrocopterLelis
Crystal MaidenJANTER
MagnusGunnar
48% · 140 games
DisruptorFly
Game 2prediction missed30:14
Night Pulse 36%nouns 64%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKami
UrsaYuma
TidehunterCorrupted
KunkkaGunnar
PangolierWorick
Storm SpiritCopy
DisruptorJANTER
Skywrath MageLelis
54% · 176 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 73%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2