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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 14 games
43%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 13 games
62%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 13 games
69%
Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 13 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 10 games
60%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 31 game
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 23 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 17 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 670 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 798 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
477 picks · 478 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 547 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
425 picks · 363 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
419 picks · 1001 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
391 picks · 912 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 763 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Night Pulse
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total73% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:23
Night Pulse 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKami
54% · 164 games53% · 222 games
MagnusWoE
Magnus
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
45% · 373 games41% · 57 games
AbaddonChodΣX
Abaddon
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
58% · 104 games51% · 306 games
Primal BeastDifference
Primal Beast
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
52% · 83 games53% · 184 games
Muertanot me
Muerta
Rubick
RubickdEsire
49% · 246 games44% · 201 game
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct35:12
Night Pulse 63%One Move 37%
The model gave 63% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKami
51% · 89 games53% · 183 games
MagnusWoE
Magnus
Monkey King
Monkey KingWorick
48% · 200 games47% · 99 games
MarciChodΣX
Marci
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
63% · 184 games42% · 271 game
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertadEsire
51% · 198 games49% · 62 games
Leshracnot me
Leshrac
Silencer
SilencerKidaro
57% · 3 games40% · 59 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 73%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2