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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 4 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%

Passion UA

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
niche · 5 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
QBFY · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 2 games
0%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
niche · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
niche · 1 game
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
niche · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
niche · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
417 picks · 678 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 633 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
391 picks · 318 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
374 picks · 447 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
373 picks · 825 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 585 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:31
Night Pulse 81%Passion UA 19%
The model gave 81% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 44:40.
Game 2prediction correct27:9
Night Pulse 81%Passion UA 19%
The model gave 81% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 20:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 81%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2