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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 17 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 15 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 11 games
82%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hduo · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 9 games
44%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 38 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 25 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 22 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 416 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
458 picks · 553 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
446 picks · 557 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
437 picks · 546 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
419 picks · 232 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 786 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 443 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
397 picks · 834 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Night Pulse
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total76% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:46
Night Pulse 65%Passion UA 35%
The model gave 65% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Passion UA in 58:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKami
51% · 192 games55% · 252 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
51% · 213 games42% · 102 games
DawnbreakerBatyuk
Dawnbreaker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
48% · 98 games49% · 148 games
MuertaFernans
Muerta
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
47% · 305 games51% · 66 games
Earthshakerniche
Earthshaker
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
44% · 33 games56% · 273 games
Clockwerkkreker
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct34:40
Night Pulse 67%Passion UA 33%
The model gave 67% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 58:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKami
51% · 149 games47% · 218 games
Dragon KnightCrystallize
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
49% · 231 game39% · 89 games
DawnbreakerBatyuk
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaDavai
60% · 185 games57% · 139 games
Puckniche
Puck
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
56% · 132 games48% · 254 games
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
48% · 112 games42% · 109 games
MuertaFernans
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct39:11
Night Pulse 64%Passion UA 36%
The model gave 64% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKami
45% · 67 games55% · 26 games
BloodseekerCrystallize
Bloodseeker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDavai
48% · 168 games53% · 68 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritWorick
51% · 199 games54% · 261 game
Tinyniche
Tiny
Muerta
MuertadEsire
44% · 270 games54% · 186 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
43% · 95 games54% · 258 games
Gyrocopterkreker
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 76%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3