RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 13 games
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 11 games
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 11 games
Techies
JANTER · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 10 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
386 picks · 701 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 375 bans
Clockwerk
321 picks · 467 bans
Weaver
320 picks · 618 bans
Hoodwink
319 picks · 251 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 207 bans
Dark Willow
307 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
294 picks · 540 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:13
Night Pulse 63%Rest Farmers 37%
The model gave 63% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 23:54.
Game 2prediction correct34:33
Night Pulse 63%Rest Farmers 37%
The model gave 63% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 48:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 63%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2