European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Hryvnialoss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
Shadow Demon
JANTER · 1 game
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
255 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
251 picks · 112 bans
Vengeful Spirit
224 picks · 230 bans
Treant Protector
217 picks · 477 bans
Phoenix
207 picks · 289 bans
Pangolier
203 picks · 401 bans
Muerta
188 picks · 254 bans
Nature's Prophet
188 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Hryvnia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:36
Night Pulse 39%Team Hryvnia 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 44:02.
Game 2prediction missed38:16
Night Pulse 39%Team Hryvnia 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 27:23.
Game 3prediction missed32:32
Night Pulse 39%Team Hryvnia 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 56:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Hryvnia · 61%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3