Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nightshadewin 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Dandelionsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nightshade
Lion
Kyzko · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Bristleback
ChodΣX · 3 games
Dawnbreaker
ChodΣX · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 3 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Kyzko · 3 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 346 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 321 bans
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 493 bans
Mars
303 picks · 426 bans
Techies
286 picks · 206 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 417 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 494 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Dandelions
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Dandelions
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Nightshade 45%Dandelions 55%
The model gave 55% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Nightshade.
Model check result
Model favoriteDandelions · 55%
Series resultNightshade 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1