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RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nightshadeloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Night Pulseloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nightshade

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
jmn- · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ri4man · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Kyzko · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
jmn- · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
0%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 11 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hduo · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 707 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
326 picks · 623 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
322 picks · 467 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 374 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
322 picks · 258 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
321 picks · 214 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
305 picks · 350 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
298 picks · 539 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength60% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:36
Nightshade 41%Night Pulse 59%
The model gave 59% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Nightshade in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierRi4man
44% · 201 game51% · 158 games
Templar AssassinV-Tune
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordChodΣX
46% · 63 games48% · 21 game
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKyzko
51% · 25 games51% · 74 games
SlardarKami
Slardar
Sven
Svenjmn-
47% · 136 games58% · 120 games
WeaverJANTER
Weaver
58% · 52 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct13:44
Nightshade 42%Night Pulse 58%
The model gave 58% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerChodΣX
48% · 124 games50% · 90 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRi4man
51% · 120 games51% · 25 games
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKyzko
43% · 144 games50% · 109 games
EnigmaKami
Enigma
Snapfire
Snapfirejmn-
47% · 86 games53% · 115 games
Elder TitanJANTER
Elder Titan
57% · 135 games
GrimstrokeHduo
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2