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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
496 Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Meracle · 14 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 12 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 11 games
73%
Spectre
Spectresignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 9 games
78%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Jhocam · 8 games
88%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
88%

496 Gaming

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Bombi · 3 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Bombi · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
274 picks · 408 bans
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
272 picks · 391 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
258 picks · 646 bans
61%
Bane
Bane
242 picks · 182 bans
60%
Weaver
Weaver
225 picks · 434 bans
57%
Lina
Lina
221 picks · 472 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
208 picks · 107 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
205 picks · 265 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:15
Nigma Galaxy SEA 80%496 Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 50:41.
Game 2prediction missed16:33
Nigma Galaxy SEA 80%496 Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 32:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 80%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2