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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 17 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Meracle · 12 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 8 games
88%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
inYourdreaM · 7 games
71%

Army Geniuses

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Lym- · 14 games
43%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 13 games
31%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 12 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 11 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Varizh · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 9 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
MamangDaya · 8 games
13%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
db- · 8 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 541 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
331 picks · 255 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 201 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
315 picks · 701 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
255 picks · 753 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
248 picks · 387 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
238 picks · 153 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 330 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 30%
Hero pool strength66% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total87% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:34
Nigma Galaxy SEA 87%Army Geniuses 13%
The model gave 87% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 49:47.
Game 2prediction missed28:10
Nigma Galaxy SEA 87%Army Geniuses 13%
The model gave 87% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 36:11.
Game 3prediction missed22:35
Nigma Galaxy SEA 87%Army Geniuses 13%
The model gave 87% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 44:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 87%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3