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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 7 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
20%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
343 · 4 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
50%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 3 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Q · 3 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 2 games
100%
Abaddon
Abaddon
LionaX · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 1013 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 600 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
359 picks · 365 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 189 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
321 picks · 508 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
315 picks · 681 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
309 picks · 227 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
254 picks · 142 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 85%
Hero pool strength55% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:43
Nigma Galaxy SEA 45%Motivate.Trust Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 51:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMeracle
54% · 26 games47% · 54 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Juggernaut
JuggernautinYourdreaM
57% · 61 game50% · 52 games
ViperFearless
Viper
Tiny
TinyAlaCrity
60% · 59 games46% · 150 games
LionQ
Lion
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPoloson
45% · 43 games46% · 27 games
Treant ProtectorLionaX
Treant Protector
Grimstroke
Grimstroke343
47% · 94 games
Game 2prediction missed33:30
Nigma Galaxy SEA 43%Motivate.Trust Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsainYourdreaM
35% · 57 games53% · 136 games
Wraith KingJaCkky
Wraith King
Puck
PuckAlaCrity
42% · 168 games47% · 67 games
LeshracFearless
Leshrac
Necrophos
NecrophosMeracle
53% · 11 games64% · 77 games
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPoloson
52% · 107 games59% · 94 games
Elder TitanLionaX
Elder Titan
Warlock
Warlock343
43% · 31 game
Game 3prediction correct33:60
Nigma Galaxy SEA 44%Motivate.Trust Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 56:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordinYourdreaM
51% · 52 games44% · 78 games
UrsaJaCkky
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
55% · 50 games49% · 47 games
KunkkaFearless
Kunkka
Magnus
MagnusMeracle
53% · 17 games47% · 89 games
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPoloson
50% · 79 games50% · 93 games
Elder TitanLionaX
Elder Titan
Grimstroke
Grimstroke343
53% · 109 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 61%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3