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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 23 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Meracle · 14 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 11 games
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Poloson · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 10 games
70%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lion
cml · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 4 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
cml · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cml · 3 games
0%
Bane
Bane
cml · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Force · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 116 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
272 picks · 502 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
263 picks · 426 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
254 picks · 345 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 337 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
229 picks · 495 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
229 picks · 241 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:40
Nigma Galaxy SEA 64%Polaris Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordinYourdreaM
45% · 85 games60% · 81 game
RazorNatsumi
Razor
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAlaCrity
44% · 197 games55% · 166 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMeracle
41% · 27 games53% · 221 game
PangolierForce
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaJhocam
50% · 139 games60% · 36 games
Vengeful SpiritBoomy
Vengeful Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterPoloson
44% · 136 games48% · 80 games
Disruptorcml
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct39:19
Nigma Galaxy SEA 65%Polaris Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 51:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracinYourdreaM
51% · 149 games55% · 143 games
Wraith KingNatsumi
Wraith King
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAlaCrity
54% · 119 games48% · 34 games
Queen of PainMac
Queen of Pain
Tiny
TinyMeracle
45% · 167 games45% · 158 games
TidehunterForce
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJhocam
48% · 229 games48% · 299 games
LionBoomy
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPoloson
59% · 104 games48% · 134 games
Elder Titancml
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed20:45
Nigma Galaxy SEA 65%Polaris Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAlaCrity
43% · 96 games53% · 91 game
Wraith KingNatsumi
Wraith King
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidinYourdreaM
47% · 147 games57% · 135 games
PuckMac
Puck
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMeracle
61% · 22 games45% · 198 games
MarsForce
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireJhocam
53% · 232 games52% · 85 games
TuskBoomy
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPoloson
47% · 230 games52% · 218 games
Lioncml
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 74%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3