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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ragdollloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lion
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Meracle · 10 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
AlaCrity · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 7 games
86%
Medusa
Medusasignature
inYourdreaM · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
43%

Ragdoll

Mars
Marsoften banned
Gy · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ahjit · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
vtFαded · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Azrael · 6 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Yif · 6 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
80%
Lion
Lion
Yif · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Azrael · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
482 picks · 345 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
440 picks · 630 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
370 picks · 465 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
369 picks · 817 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
360 picks · 189 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
293 picks · 490 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
282 picks · 430 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
257 picks · 347 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Ragdoll
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:30
Nigma Galaxy SEA 57%Ragdoll 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 38:52.
Game 2prediction missed23:34
Nigma Galaxy SEA 57%Ragdoll 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 43:49.
Game 3prediction missed55:37
Nigma Galaxy SEA 57%Ragdoll 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 1:23:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 57%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3