Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RSGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 435 bans
Mars
464 picks · 692 bans
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 535 bans
Bane
430 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 600 bans
Storm Spirit
370 picks · 590 bans
Sand King
340 picks · 504 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:28
Nigma Galaxy SEA 62%RSG 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by RSG in 36:04.
Game 2prediction missed23:38
Nigma Galaxy SEA 62%RSG 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by RSG in 37:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 62%
Series resultRSG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2