?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Mysteryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 11 games
55%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
78%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 9 games
56%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
25%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
343 · 6 games
50%

Team Mystery

Tusk
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
25%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Mercury · 1 game
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Ohaiyo · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Ohaiyo · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
450 picks · 188 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 579 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
366 picks · 867 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 240 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 399 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
293 picks · 417 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:8
Nigma Galaxy SEA 66%Team Mystery 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 27:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerinYourdreaM
54% · 37 games54% · 43 games
Lunamks-
Luna
Kunkka
KunkkaAlaCrity
49% · 47 games53% · 76 games
Ember SpiritMercury
Ember Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracMeracle
43% · 55 games56% · 74 games
Dragon Knightxiaoyu154
Dragon Knight
Lion
LionJhocam
46% · 165 games56% · 140 games
Nyx AssassinPonyo
Nyx Assassin
Undying
UndyingPoloson
31% · 29 games
Game 2prediction correct38:15
Nigma Galaxy SEA 65%Team Mystery 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreinYourdreaM
52% · 43 games51% · 53 games
Faceless Voidmks-
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
57% · 103 games53% · 106 games
Timbersawxiaoyu154
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMeracle
43% · 66 games51% · 91 game
PangolierMercury
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixJhocam
48% · 110 games48% · 115 games
Ancient ApparitionPonyo
Ancient Apparition
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPoloson
47% · 43 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 78%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2