Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AAdoNisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 7 games
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 7 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
Magnusoften banned
Ghost · 6 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 5 games
Tiny
SumaiL · 5 games
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
rmN- · 4 games
AdoNis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
340 picks · 336 bans
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 530 bans
Mars
319 picks · 482 bans
Techies
309 picks · 241 bans
Hoodwink
299 picks · 176 bans
Batrider
298 picks · 568 bans
Tiny
283 picks · 254 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:9
Nigma Galaxy 81%AdoNis 19%
The model gave 81% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 25:04.
Game 2prediction correct33:8
Nigma Galaxy 81%AdoNis 19%
The model gave 81% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 18:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 81%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2