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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 10 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 10 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
86%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 6 games
33%

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 996 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 212 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 618 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
358 picks · 361 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
320 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
288 picks · 198 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
279 picks · 615 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:16
Nigma Galaxy 40%AS Monaco Gambit 60%
The model gave 60% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:24.
Game 2prediction missed29:30
Nigma Galaxy 40%AS Monaco Gambit 60%
The model gave 60% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 52:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 60%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2