Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 11 games
Batridersignature
rmN- · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 9 games
Miranasignature
KuroKy · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KuroKy · 8 games
Windrangersignature
Miracle- · 8 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
475 picks · 766 bans
Mars
440 picks · 705 bans
Techies
435 picks · 347 bans
Tiny
432 picks · 569 bans
Batrider
430 picks · 915 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Crystal Maiden
413 picks · 187 bans
Rubick
403 picks · 196 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 37%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:5
Nigma Galaxy 30%Aurora Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 22:38.
Game 2prediction correct26:28
Nigma Galaxy 30%Aurora Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:39.
Game 3prediction missed20:4
Nigma Galaxy 30%Aurora Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 70%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3