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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
32%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 19 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 18 games
22%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
44%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 15 games
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 15 games
53%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 19 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
35%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 16 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 949 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 437 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 640 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
475 picks · 638 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
445 picks · 962 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 660 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 543 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
389 picks · 240 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 37%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:6
Nigma Galaxy 55%AVULUS 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 25:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
54% · 215 games46% · 168 games
Void Spiritdualrazee
Void Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
51% · 306 games47% · 248 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Underlord
UnderlordNo!ob
51% · 126 games48% · 42 games
LargoCorrupted
Largo
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionGH
52% · 109 games52% · 205 games
HoodwinkWein
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
55% · 172 games45% · 265 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct27:14
Nigma Galaxy 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 56:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightrincyq
50% · 591 game51% · 180 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
55% · 145 games48% · 243 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Largo
LargoNo!ob
51% · 57 games50% · 278 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
52% · 399 games47% · 426 games
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Dazzle
DazzleGH
46% · 167 games49% · 232 games
RingmasterWein
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 58%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2