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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Bane
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 8 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
rmN- · 7 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%

Brame

Viper
Viperoften banned
SkyLark · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ThuG · 13 games
62%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 12 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 11 games
55%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Focus · 11 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ThuG · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 449 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
484 picks · 700 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 290 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
442 picks · 535 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
391 picks · 545 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 628 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 620 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 316 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:5
Nigma Galaxy 55%Brame 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 22:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMiracle-
56% · 123 games58% · 209 games
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckSumaiL
52% · 143 games48% · 55 games
JuggernautThuG
Juggernaut
Batrider
BatriderMinD_ContRoL
53% · 75 games41% · 165 games
TimbersawSkyLark
Timbersaw
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKuroKy
48% · 89 games46% · 79 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Io
IoGH
49% · 99 games47% · 21 game
MarciSsaSpartan
Marci
Game 2prediction correct31:6
Nigma Galaxy 57%Brame 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 20:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMiracle-
52% · 170 games54% · 177 games
TinyW1sh-
Tiny
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSumaiL
42% · 49 games44% · 58 games
UrsaThuG
Ursa
Pudge
PudgeMinD_ContRoL
47% · 23 games50% · 82 games
TimbersawSkyLark
Timbersaw
Dazzle
DazzleKuroKy
52% · 9 games53% · 38 games
MarcidEsire
Marci
Snapfire
SnapfireGH
49% · 151 game54% · 47 games
VisageSsaSpartan
Visage
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 60%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2