DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCOPPYBEBRAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 11 games
Batridersignature
rmN- · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 9 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
Miranasignature
KuroKy · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 7 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Ghost · 6 games
COPPYBEBRA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
416 picks · 671 bans
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
Mars
392 picks · 630 bans
Techies
388 picks · 315 bans
Batrider
372 picks · 816 bans
Tiny
372 picks · 440 bans
Vengeful Spirit
356 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 580 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:1
Nigma Galaxy 79%COPPYBEBRA 21%
The model gave 79% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 16:58.
Game 2prediction correct39:12
Nigma Galaxy 79%COPPYBEBRA 21%
The model gave 79% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 19:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 79%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2