Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Death Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Tusk
GH · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 8 games
Rubick
GH · 8 games
Iosignature
GH · 7 games
Leshracsignature
SumaiL · 7 games
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
400 picks · 396 bans
Tiny
366 picks · 364 bans
Rubick
352 picks · 243 bans
Mirana
288 picks · 292 bans
Treant Protector
230 picks · 276 bans
Snapfire
222 picks · 118 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
194 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
Nigma Galaxy 32%Entity 68%
The model gave 68% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 51:46.
Game 2prediction correct5:45
Nigma Galaxy 32%Entity 68%
The model gave 68% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 36:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 68%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2