PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GamerLegionwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Tusksignature
GH · 31 game
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 28 games
Elder Titan
GH · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 19 games
GamerLegion
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 2 games
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
Bignum · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
753 picks · 352 bans
Disruptor
608 picks · 630 bans
Hoodwink
543 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
447 picks · 266 bans
Dragon Knight
442 picks · 496 bans
Puck
441 picks · 1181 bans
Mars
433 picks · 722 bans
Jakiro
391 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength62% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:33
Nigma Galaxy 82%GamerLegion 18%
The model gave 82% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 48:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TidehunterTA2000
Templar AssassinYamSun
PuckSumaiL
LycanFayde
MarsNo!ob
SlardarRCY
HoodwinkOmaR
JakiroSpeeed
Shadow DemonTobi
SnapfireBignum
Game 2prediction missed12:37
Nigma Galaxy 81%GamerLegion 19%
The model gave 81% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterTA2000
JuggernautYamSun
MuertaSumaiL
AxeFayde
MarsNo!ob
SlardarRCY
Shadow DemonTobi
SnapfireSpeeed
ClockwerkOmaR
JakiroBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 95%
Series resultGamerLegion 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2