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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaozuloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 14 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 14 games
86%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Miracle- · 12 games
58%

Gaozu

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Dy · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JT- · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ame · 3 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
JT- · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
XinQ · 3 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
XinQ · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 491 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 534 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
337 picks · 449 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 498 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 596 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
302 picks · 649 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Gaozu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Gaozu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:26
Nigma Galaxy 44%Gaozu 56%
The model gave 56% on Gaozu — the game was taken by Gaozu in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMiracle-
51% · 127 games51% · 64 games
BloodseekerAme
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierSumaiL
51% · 375 games52% · 105 games
BrewmasterJT-
Brewmaster
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNo!ob
42% · 98 games50% · 164 games
InvokerPaparazi
Invoker
Magnus
MagnusOmaR
50% · 162 games52% · 323 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiGH
45% · 55 games54% · 161 game
PugnaDy
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed31:15
Nigma Galaxy 45%Gaozu 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaozu — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMiracle-
54% · 248 games47% · 176 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Razor
RazorSumaiL
45% · 179 games53% · 145 games
InvokerPaparazi
Invoker
Mars
MarsNo!ob
49% · 215 games57% · 68 games
UnderlordJT-
Underlord
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiGH
41% · 51 game49% · 305 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Magnus
MagnusOmaR
59% · 167 games44% · 166 games
SnapfireDy
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteGaozu · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2