ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hininyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 11 games
Chenoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
rmN- · 6 games
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Doomsignature
Ghost · 6 games
Hininy
Anti-Mageoften banned
islA · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
islA · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
islA · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
islA · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
islA · 1 game
Luna
islA · 1 game
Meepooften banned
islA · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
islA · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 500 bans
Phoenix
291 picks · 430 bans
Lion
282 picks · 242 bans
Vengeful Spirit
273 picks · 192 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 454 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 353 bans
Magnus
253 picks · 398 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 733 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:33
Nigma Galaxy 65%Hininy 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMiracle-
Monkey KingislA
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
WindrangerFbz
Nature's ProphetKuroKy
Centaur WarrunnerMatthew
Game 2prediction correct29:2
Nigma Galaxy 68%Hininy 32%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 21:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritSumaiL
TerrorbladeislA
TidehunterFbz
LifestealerMiracle-
Nature's ProphetKuroKy
PugnaMatthew
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 78%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2