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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 19 games
89%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OmaR · 17 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 15 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 14 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
SumaiL · 9 games
33%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Miracle- · 9 games
67%

Infinity Esports

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Kiri · 8 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 6 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Yor · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
kendallx · 5 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Genek · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panda · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
341 picks · 293 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
331 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 433 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
313 picks · 530 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
301 picks · 289 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
296 picks · 424 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 473 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
293 picks · 795 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength60% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:34
Nigma Galaxy 60%Infinity Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 50:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMiracle-
50% · 90 games54% · 110 games
Shadow FiendCostabile
Shadow Fiend
Alchemist
AlchemistSumaiL
53% · 57 games47% · 218 games
TimbersawILICH-
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomNo!ob
45% · 115 games56% · 169 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
45% · 201 game52% · 132 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
47% · 166 games
Game 2prediction correct39:17
Nigma Galaxy 63%Infinity Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMiracle-
55% · 106 games44% · 147 games
RazorCostabile
Razor
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
65% · 47 games44% · 75 games
VisageILICH-
Visage
Snapfire
SnapfireOmaR
58% · 61 game39% · 101 game
Earth SpiritPiPi
Earth Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaNo!ob
45% · 108 games49% · 104 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
60% · 105 games
Game 3prediction missed19:29
Nigma Galaxy 61%Infinity Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMiracle-
52% · 117 games49% · 178 games
GyrocopterCostabile
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
43% · 114 games52% · 212 games
PuckPiPi
Puck
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
58% · 102 games49% · 184 games
KunkkaILICH-
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
47% · 192 games48% · 78 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Lion
LionOmaR
53% · 127 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 70%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3