DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 1:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ivoryloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 30 games
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
Muerta
rincyq · 27 games
Jakiro
GH · 25 games
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 22 games
Ivory
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 10 games
Jakiro
Teehee · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Rupido · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Karma丶 · 7 games
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
Dric~ · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Rupido · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
608 picks · 539 bans
Tiny
531 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
477 picks · 537 bans
Hoodwink
470 picks · 238 bans
Tusk
467 picks · 412 bans
Warlock
394 picks · 244 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1014 bans
Puck
383 picks · 911 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nigma Galaxy 93%Ivory 7%
The model gave 93% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 93%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1